5/31/2010

如何評估小聯盟野手的潛力?(翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 A guide to evaluating hitting prospects )

打擊率/上壘率/長打率
1打擊率,上壘率,以及長打率,是現代棒球最常拿來評估一位打者的數據。這三項數據的平均值大概是.275/.330/.450。一般來說,打擊率可以因為運氣而驟升三個百分點。選球通常是與生俱來的能力,打擊者的選球好壞常常是天份來決定,我們很少看到打者的保送可以急遽的上升或下降。長打能力是可以學習的,大部分的年輕打者長打力較弱,但透過經驗的累積以及身體素質的成長,長打力是可以進步的。三項指標的平衡是很關鍵的,如果一個潛力新秀有高打擊率,但保送次數很少而且長打力不佳,他的攻擊表現總體來講是負分的,別被打擊率三成所蒙騙!另一放面,那些打擊率及長打率不高,但有高上壘率可能意味著這名選手善用了小聯盟投手控球不佳的特性。然而大聯盟的投手普遍有較佳的控球,如果他們察覺一名打者擊球能力不佳,他們會毫不手軟的攻擊打者的弱點,在對決中佔得上風。

5/29/2010

延長春訓短報-左腕小虎羅華韋

1第一次看見羅華韋,是去年的王貞治杯,因為之前的玉山杯他超齡無法登錄,所以特別期待傳說中的144 km左腕。只是當天剛好不是他先發,只能看他提著棒子在場上守右外野。無法現場體驗這位三信家商4大天投(王躍霖、王梓安、黃嘉銘)之一的球威。不過倒是對他排灣族的輪廓留下深刻印象。





5/28/2010

陳金鋒的崛起和殞落(翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 The rise and fall of Chin-Feng Chen)

這一系列的文章是在回顧台灣過去的潛力球星,並從數據和球探觀點探討他們的成功與失敗。

1陳金鋒是在1999年被洛杉磯道奇隊以六十八萬美金簽約金簽下來的,而他也被譽為是台灣選手被美國大聯盟簽下的有史以來最強的打者。以21歲的年紀,道奇積極的把陳金鋒安排從高階1A San Bernadino隊出發,而他也以繳出(打擊率0. 316/上壘率0.404/長打率0.58)的傲人成績來回應。就算是在以恐怖打擊聞名的加州聯盟,陳金鋒的表現還是驚奇的,特別這還是他第一次長時間接觸美國棒球文化的第一個球季。陳金鋒展現了一個強打者應有的各方面表現,例如高打擊率、不錯的保送率、強大的爆發力、甚至盜壘也有38次嘗試31次成功的表現。季末陳金鋒繳出30-30(全壘打和盜壘各30次以上)的成績,而他也被Baseball America評選為整體淺力新秀的第17名。

5/26/2010

唐肇廷今晚的勝利打點

13天沒有上場的肇廷,今天在作客Tampa Yankees的比賽裡面擔任第八棒右外野手。最近3場打下24分的Lakeland Flying Tigers,前面幾局顯得十分沈悶。六局結束還以1:2落後,七局上2出局滿壘,一壞球後肇廷鎖定第一任中繼投手Craig Heyer一記94英哩的快速直球揮出中外野平飛安打,將壘上2位跑著送回,球隊取得3:2領先,自己也靠著積極的跑壘上到二壘。

5/21/2010

增菘瑋遭獨立聯盟釋出(更新)

14月14日正式與獨立聯盟球隊簽約的增菘瑋,已於5月17日遭球隊釋出。

5/20/2010

羅嘉仁為何受傷? 運動傷害防護觀點

(編按:羅嘉仁於5月7號因為手臂受傷進入傷兵名單。藉由這個機會,一起來認識一下小聯盟的投手培養方式及運動傷害。不敢說分析來的結果就是真正的原因,所以有什麼意見也歡迎大家討論,謝謝!)

1相信大家都知道前些日子羅嘉仁進入傷兵名單的消息,根據醫生的初步診斷應該是前臂的肌肉拉傷。那何謂肌肉拉傷呢?讓我們先來了解它的基本定義及介紹,再來解釋為何羅嘉仁此次受傷的可能性。

5/19/2010

羅嘉仁為何受傷? 球員系統培養觀點 (翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 Could the Astros have predicted Lo's injury? A scouting perspective)

(編按:羅嘉仁於5月7號因為手臂受傷進入傷兵名單。藉由這個機會,一起來認識一下小聯盟的投手培養方式及運動傷害。不敢說分析來的結果就是真正的原因,所以有什麼意見也歡迎大家討論,謝謝!)

1當一個投手受傷,通常第一個要問的問題是:這名投手是否被過度使用。這篇文章將告訴我們,問題的成因是有很多面向的。我們先從羅嘉仁這個球季的投球工作量以及出場頻率來看:

陳鏞基進入傷兵名單

1目前效力於奧克蘭運動家隊AA的陳鏞基,在上週四比賽跑壘時,因為左手掌/腕被游擊手的傳球擊中後有瘀青現像,已經被Midland Rockhund放入傷兵名單

5/18/2010

Could the Astros have predicted Lo's injury? A scouting perspective

(編按:羅嘉仁於5月7號因為手臂受傷進入傷兵名單。藉由這個機會,一起來認識一下小聯盟的投手培養方式及運動傷害。不敢說分析來的結果就是真正的原因,所以有什麼意見也歡迎大家討論,謝謝!)

1Usually one of the first questions asked when a pitcher is injured was whether he was overworked. As we will see in this article, the answer to this question depends on which level the pitcher is currently at. Let's take a look at Lo's workload so far this year

5/17/2010

春訓短報─用肉身擋(子彈)的陳家駒

1首先,我必須承認這篇文章lag很久了,不過當時真的看到一些很有趣的畫面,既然家駒也還在春訓營,就在此跟大家分享吧!跟智賢一樣,家駒今年也被邀請參加春訓前的mini camp,所以早在二月底就向春訓基地報到了。去看他的那幾天還在調時差,直說練球好累,我在想春訓不是才剛開始嗎,怎麼會累呢?






5/13/2010

胡金龍何時再穿上道奇球衣?(翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 When will we see Chin-Lung Hu in Dodger Blue again?)

1現在胡金龍在道奇的情況有些詭異。對他升上大聯盟的影響因素,有利或是不利的正反面都存在,就讓我們從好的方面談起吧。

5/12/2010

When will we see Chin-Lung Hu in Dodger Blue again?

1Hu is currently in an interesting position since he has several factors working in his favor towards a promotion and several working against it. We'll start by looking at the positives.

5/11/2010

從煙山再出發的陳鴻文(下)

1很幸運的,這次對手又是國家聯盟的球隊,所以我又有機會欣賞到罕見的投手打擊。不過既然照了這麼多照片,這次就由圖片來呈現陳鴻文本日的第一打席吧!




5/10/2010

下一個升的是...陳鏞基?(翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 Promoting Yung-Chi Chen? http://milbtw.blogspot.com/2010/05/promoting-yung-chi-chen.html)

1四年前,陳鏞基是個前途似錦的攻擊型二壘手。經過幾個瘟疫似的傷痛球季後,黯淡的打擊表現(打擊率0.161/上壘率0.197/長打率0.24)讓他還只是奧克蘭運動家2A的替補游擊手。所以,陳鏞基到底有多大的機會能夠成為大聯盟的一員呢?

5/08/2010

A guide to evaluating hitting prospects

AVG/OBP/SLG

1Most hitters these days are identified by their batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. Averages for each are roughly .275/.330/.450. Generally, batting averages can fluctuate up to 30 points based on luck. Plate discipline tends to be an innate skill. Players either have it or they don’t, very few players dramatically increase or decrease their walk rate. Power can be learned. Most young players don’t have a lot of power. A combination of experience and maturing bodies results in growing power. Balance among the 3 stats is the key. If a prospect has a high average, but takes few walks and has little power his offensive performance is a net negative for the team. Don't be fooled just because a prospect is hitting .300! Also be wary of players with low batting averages, great OBP, and poor slugging. It means he's good at taking pitches and taking advantage of the fact that minor league pitchers are wild. However, major league pitchers have good control and if they see a hitter who can't make good contact and rarely hits the ball hard they'll ruthlessly exploit this weakness.

5/07/2010

The rise and fall of Chin-Feng Chen

I'll start a series of articles looking at past Taiwanese prospects and why they succeeded or didn't succeed from both a statistical and scouting point of view.

1Chen was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers for $680,000 US in 1999 and was regarded as the best Taiwanese power hitter to ever be signed by a MLB team. At 21 years old, the Dodgers aggressively started Chen in high-A San Bernadino and Chen responded to the challenge by putting up a line of .316/.404/.580. Even taking into account the fact that the California league is a notorious hitters league, Chen's line was amazing especially since this was his first prolonged exposure to American baseball and culture. Chen displayed many traits you could ask for in a good hitter: high average, good walk rate, big power and he even stole 31 bases in 38 tries. He projected as a 30-30 player and after the season Baseball America named Chen its #17 overall prospect.

5/06/2010

從煙山再出發的陳鴻文(上)

1
每張照片後面都有一個小故事,這張照片告訴我:不要高興得太早。

5/01/2010

Promoting Yung-Chi Chen?

(編按:轉戰運動家隊後,陳鏞基會不會上到大聯盟一直是大家關心的課題。我們請來從小在灣區長大的運動家球迷,為大家來分析目前農場二遊防區的形勢)

1Four years ago Yung-Chi Chen was a promising offensive minded 2B prospect. Today, after several injury plagued seasons, Chen is hitting a dismal .161/.197/.242 as a stopgap SS for the Oakland A's AA team. So what are Chen's chances of cracking the MLB roster?