A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part III

Arsenal

One of the most important things that separates a future starter and reliever is the number of pitches the pitcher can throw. A reliever only needs one or two dominating pitches because it's unlikely he'll see the same batter in a game more than once. A starter doesn't have that luxury and needs to have several pitches in order to keep the hitters off balance. A sharply thrown slider might strikeout a hitter the first time, but major league hitters learn quickly and the next time they see that slider they may hit it for a home run. Thus future starters usually command around 4 pitches. Rarely do you see a pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang who more or less gets by with only two pitches simply because his sinker was so dominant.

A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part II

Level of competition

It's important not to evaluate the statistics of a pitching prospects in a vacuum. Who the pitcher is pitching against is important to gain some context for his statistics. For example, a 22 year old pitcher out of college has a good deal of experience against sound hitters. Place him on a low-A team against high school aged players who have probably never seen a good breaking ball or even thought about game theory and you would expect the pitcher to dominate. Conversely, if a young pitcher is getting rocked and a high level that is not always cause for alarm since he might be in over his head. Chen-Chang Lee and Chia-Jen Lo both came to the states with college and international experience and, as expected, did very well when they started in high-A.

A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part I

Pitching prospects are notoriously difficult to evaluate since they are prone to large variations in performance as well as serious injuries. Nevertheless we can outline some major traits that can help us to identify the best pitching prospects. We will also examine which statistics obscure our evaluation of pitching prospects and how they can often hurt more than help.

Is Hung-Wen Chen a top prospect?

Hung-Wen Chen seems to have posted a very strong season thus far with a tiny 2.27 ERA on the season. Players who can post those types of ERAs in AA tend to quickly be classified as top prospects. However, let's take a closer look at his season and determine whether or not he deserves to be called a top prospect.

Futures game selection?

Futures Game rosters are just around the corner so I thought we'd take a look at which Taiwanese player is most likely to make the team. The Futures Game is the first chance many of us get to see top prospects play on television. The current format is United States vs. World and since MLB is interested in showcasing its diversity it is almost guaranteed that at least one Taiwanese player will make the roster. The last four Taiwanese to make the roster were Yung-Chi Chen, Chin-Lung Hu, Che-Hsuan Lin, and Chia-Jen Lo. The current top 3 candidates are in order of likelihood:

Could the Astros have predicted Lo's injury? A scouting perspective

(編按：羅嘉仁於5月7號因為手臂受傷進入傷兵名單。藉由這個機會，一起來認識一下小聯盟的投手培養方式及運動傷害。不敢說分析來的結果就是真正的原因，所以有什麼意見也歡迎大家討論，謝謝！)

Usually one of the first questions asked when a pitcher is injured was whether he was overworked. As we will see in this article, the answer to this question depends on which level the pitcher is currently at. Let's take a look at Lo's workload so far this year

When will we see Chin-Lung Hu in Dodger Blue again?

Hu is currently in an interesting position since he has several factors working in his favor towards a promotion and several working against it. We'll start by looking at the positives.

A guide to evaluating hitting prospects

AVG/OBP/SLG

Most hitters these days are identified by their batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. Averages for each are roughly .275/.330/.450. Generally, batting averages can fluctuate up to 30 points based on luck. Plate discipline tends to be an innate skill. Players either have it or they don’t, very few players dramatically increase or decrease their walk rate. Power can be learned. Most young players don’t have a lot of power. A combination of experience and maturing bodies results in growing power. Balance among the 3 stats is the key. If a prospect has a high average, but takes few walks and has little power his offensive performance is a net negative for the team. Don't be fooled just because a prospect is hitting .300! Also be wary of players with low batting averages, great OBP, and poor slugging. It means he's good at taking pitches and taking advantage of the fact that minor league pitchers are wild. However, major league pitchers have good control and if they see a hitter who can't make good contact and rarely hits the ball hard they'll ruthlessly exploit this weakness.

The rise and fall of Chin-Feng Chen

I'll start a series of articles looking at past Taiwanese prospects and why they succeeded or didn't succeed from both a statistical and scouting point of view.

Chen was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers for $680,000 US in 1999 and was regarded as the best Taiwanese power hitter to ever be signed by a MLB team. At 21 years old, the Dodgers aggressively started Chen in high-A San Bernadino and Chen responded to the challenge by putting up a line of .316/.404/.580. Even taking into account the fact that the California league is a notorious hitters league, Chen's line was amazing especially since this was his first prolonged exposure to American baseball and culture. Chen displayed many traits you could ask for in a good hitter: high average, good walk rate, big power and he even stole 31 bases in 38 tries. He projected as a 30-30 player and after the season Baseball America named Chen its #17 overall prospect.

Promoting Yung-Chi Chen?

(編按：轉戰運動家隊後，陳鏞基會不會上到大聯盟一直是大家關心的課題。我們請來從小在灣區長大的運動家球迷，為大家來分析目前農場二遊防區的形勢)

Four years ago Yung-Chi Chen was a promising offensive minded 2B prospect. Today, after several injury plagued seasons, Chen is hitting a dismal .161/.197/.242 as a stopgap SS for the Oakland A's AA team. So what are Chen's chances of cracking the MLB roster?