Four years ago Yung-Chi Chen was a promising offensive minded 2B prospect. Today, after several injury plagued seasons, Chen is hitting a dismal .161/.197/.242 as a stopgap SS for the Oakland A's AA team. So what are Chen's chances of cracking the MLB roster?First we should note that Chen would not be asked to play SS if he were to reach the majors. Before his injuries, his defense at 2B was described as below average to adequate. Clearly that is not enough to play SS in the majors, which remains a defense first position. Chen's position in the majors would most likely be a backup infielder capable of playing 2B and 3B when the team's starters need a day off.
Next let's take a look at the other prospects with whom MLB would be competing with for a roster spot in Oakland. In AA Alex Valdez is the current 3B. While he had a decent year in AA last year he is repeating the level and has only had one at-bat in AAA so far, making him an unlikely candidate to vault over Chen. At 2B is Jemile Weeks, who Baseball America ranked as Oakland's 7th best prospect. He profiles as a 2B with an above average bat, good speed, and decent defense. Oakland tends to move along their top position prospects gradually and tend not to skip any levels. Also, if Weeks were to be promoted to the majors it would be as a starter and not a backup, another one of Oakland's tendencies for top prospects. Thus, at the AA level, Chen is first in line to get a promotion for a backup infielder spot.
However, in AAA in the Sacramento Rivercats, Chen has considerable competition. Adrian Cardenas is the A's 9th best prospect and he projects to be either a 2B or 3B depending on his defense. Scouts have been enamored with him since high school and most scouts believe he should easily hit .300 in the majors. Cardenas is currently out due to a broken thumb but should be available soon and is expected in Oakland either in July or September. Eric Sogard is Sacramento's current 2B and he came over from San Diego in the Kevin Kouzmanoff trade. Sogard's bat profiles similarly to Chen's, except that he's 3 years younger and has more room for improvement, despite his current hitting slump. Sogard should also be able to play multiple infield positions. Michael Affronti is currently Sacramento's SS. While he plays decent defense at both SS and 2B, his hitting is poor and would only be considered as a defensive substitute in Oakland.
In order for Chen to receive a promotion to the majors one or several of the following must occur. He must break out of his current slump and start posting very good offensive numbers. Since he's almost 27 and most players peak at 27 this is a distinct possibility. He'll need numbers in the range of 300/400/ 500 to separate himself. One of the keys is hitting for more power, which thus far he has failed to demonstrate. Next he'll have to hope that Tolleson gets injured, removing him from the 40 man roster, and then Sogard/Cardenas play poorly or are injured for Chen to have a chance to be added to the 40 man roster. Then he'll have to hope that both Mark Ellis in Oakland stays injured for a while and Eric Patterson plays poorly enough to get demoted. In addition, Chen has to stay healthy, a skill he hasn't possessed for several seasons. All in all, this is hoping for quite a lot of things to happen. It will be on Chen to hit like he's never hit before and stay healthy.
A's minor league middle infield depth chart:
1. Steve Tolleson (recently called up to Oakland)
2. Eric Sogard
3. Adrian Cardenas
4. Michael Affronti
5. Yung-Chi Chen
6. Alex Valdez
7. Jemile Weeks
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