A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part III

Arsenal

One of the most important things that separates a future starter and reliever is the number of pitches the pitcher can throw. A reliever only needs one or two dominating pitches because it's unlikely he'll see the same batter in a game more than once. A starter doesn't have that luxury and needs to have several pitches in order to keep the hitters off balance. A sharply thrown slider might strikeout a hitter the first time, but major league hitters learn quickly and the next time they see that slider they may hit it for a home run. Thus future starters usually command around 4 pitches. Rarely do you see a pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang who more or less gets by with only two pitches simply because his sinker was so dominant.

新環境新挑戰－林旺衛

2年不見，旺衛其實沒什麼變，除了比賽時身上穿著不再是復健球員穿的那套練習服，還有下巴那道長長的疤痕。

如何評估小聯盟投手的潛力 系列二(翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part II)

所在層級的競爭強度

當我們在評估一個投手潛力的時候，切記不要只著重帳面上的數據。我們還要審視這投手所面對的打者群背景，再來綜合評判這些數據的意義。拿一個22歲剛剛大學畢業的投手作舉例，如果把他放在低階1A來面對這些高中年紀的打者，很明顯的你可以預見這名投手將可以主宰整個局面。這投手應該已經有豐富的面對打者作戰經驗，而這些打者搞不好連一顆夠水準的變化球都沒看過或是還在學習對戰的理論。相反的，如果一個年輕投手表現的跌跌撞撞，或許是因為被放到了過高的層級，而不是投手本身的成長限制有問題。李振昌和羅嘉仁赴美之前就已經有豐富的大專和國際賽經驗，就如同預期的，他們在一開始的高階1A就表現得非常的好。

強力右臂－李振昌

能出國的台灣投手，除了有不錯的球速，身材也有一定的水準，在美式訓練下有機會把球速再向上提升。只是來到美國以後，球速變快的人沒有想像中那麼多。但李振昌就是其一。去年球季開始去現場看的時候，單場最快是93mph，跟出國前差不多，但是季末已經可以飆到95mph。今年他在季初就達到去年高峰，甚至出現過傳說中的98 mph速球。以平均而論，目前他的速球是92-95mph在跑，比去年進步一些。以他在投手中不算特別起眼的身材，又採用低四分之三側投，沒有強而有力的手臂是辦不到的。

內野、外野、一壘指導員－陳鏞基(上)

在賽前二壘守備練習時，反手接到球後急停在空中傳球的陳鏞基。

穿著捕手護具的精靈－陳家駒(上)

雖然去年在短期1A在一些小傷的困擾下打得並不出色，家駒今年開季其實有很好的機會從低階1A出發。只是，春訓的一個小小意外，打亂了他的職業生涯。

A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part II

Level of competition

It's important not to evaluate the statistics of a pitching prospects in a vacuum. Who the pitcher is pitching against is important to gain some context for his statistics. For example, a 22 year old pitcher out of college has a good deal of experience against sound hitters. Place him on a low-A team against high school aged players who have probably never seen a good breaking ball or even thought about game theory and you would expect the pitcher to dominate. Conversely, if a young pitcher is getting rocked and a high level that is not always cause for alarm since he might be in over his head. Chen-Chang Lee and Chia-Jen Lo both came to the states with college and international experience and, as expected, did very well when they started in high-A.

如何評估小聯盟投手的潛力？ 系列一(翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part I)

因為受到太多的巨大變數或很嚴重受傷的影響，投手的潛力是非常非常難預測的。儘管如此，我們還是可以規劃出一些主要特點來幫助定義最佳的潛力投手。同時我們也會來檢測一些可能會蒙蔽我們判斷的數據，看看它們是如何幫倒忙的。

A guide to evaluating pitching prospects part I

Pitching prospects are notoriously difficult to evaluate since they are prone to large variations in performance as well as serious injuries. Nevertheless we can outline some major traits that can help us to identify the best pitching prospects. We will also examine which statistics obscure our evaluation of pitching prospects and how they can often hurt more than help.

尋求上場機會的唐肇廷

『你要來看我喔？不用了啦，我都沒上場，來看我坐板凳嗎？』聽到電話那頭傳來這樣的聲音，一種感覺湧上心頭，眼眶突然濕濕的……

我想我可以體會他的感覺。

那天晚上，肇廷就用3支3外加1次保送的表現，證明自己值得天天上場的球員。

快被遺忘的牛棚主力－倪福德

大概從三巨投的年代開始，亞特蘭大就一直是我最想去的城市之一，但是等到真有機會住在這裡，卻開始四處奔波看小聯盟的比賽，很少走進Turner Field。今年的跨聯盟賽事，底特律老虎隊難得來這作客，除了看看近況不好的的倪福德是哪裡出了問題，也藉這機會好好認識一下越來越陌生的亞特蘭大勇士隊。

第四棒‧捕手‧陳俊秀

照片裡面的2個人，正注視著俊秀高階1A的首轟……

仲夏夜開打的南北戰爭－SAL明星賽

South Atlantic League南區明星隊合照（認得計分版E字的正下方的人是誰嗎？）

Weekly Report 06.22 - 06.28

Player of the week: Che-Hsuan Lin. Lin hit .320 this week bringing his season total up to .261. He's still displaying a very good eye, but he needs to find some power. Without it he will be merely a average to good prospect instead of an elite one.

陳鴻文算不算頂級潛力新秀？(翻譯)

(原文請參考本站文章 Is Hung-Wen Chen a top prospect?)

陳鴻文這一季的表現非常強眼，他的防禦率只有低到2.27的水準。在2A能夠有這種防禦率表現的，通常很快的就會被評定為頂尖明日之星。就讓我們進一步檢視他這一季的表現，再來評論他夠不夠格被稱為頂尖的明日之星。